Both when the CBOE future expired now, when the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there is a considerable decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has quite a low volume and that i would reckon that they are dominated by one liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is usually short the near future and possibly long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit when the cost is low and also have a border after settlement if the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a very bad settlement processes which can be an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE it is the auction price for Gemini – a young having a really small volume more often than not.
CME’s model is better, however not as good, VWAP on the four major exchanges a very good idea, however, if that VWAP is calculated on one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on a real brief span of time is incredibly limited. Regardless if many large participants might have interests in any of these settlement processes they’d probably have similar position and gains advantage from precisely the same side with the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over hrs instead). In conclusion is we likely will discover a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
For additional information about cme cboe take a look at this resource.