Higher-priced coking coal probably will modify the steel industry’s transition to greener production methods as well as the value-based pricing of iron ore. Higher-priced coking coal raises the expense of producing steel via blast furnaces, in absolute terms and compared to other routes. This typically results in higher steel prices as raw material costs are passed through. It would also accelerate the pin transition in steelmaking as emerging green technologies, including hydrogen reduction, would be competitive in contrast to established production methods sooner. The need to reline or rebuild blast furnaces roughly every ten to 15 years at a cost that varies between $100 million and $300 million presents steelmakers with clear decision points, so that they will need to evaluate the cost of emerging technologies, like hydrogen-based direct reduced iron, and decide to replace their blast furnaces.
Increased coke prices would also impact the value-based pricing of iron ore. Prices many different qualities of iron ore products rely upon their iron content and chemical (mainly phosphorus, alumina, and silica content) and physical composition (lumps versus fines versus pellets). Lower-quality iron ores require more energy to cut back, ultimately causing higher coke rates inside the blast furnace. Higher coking coal prices improve the cost penalty suffered by steelmakers, leading to higher price penalties for low-grade iron ores. This might affect overall iron ore price dynamics by 50 % different methods, with respect to the amount of total iron ore demand. A single scenario, if total requirement for iron ore might be met solely with high-grade iron ores, it is likely that benchmark iron ore prices will stay steady. However, price discounts for lower-grade ore would increase significantly, potentially pushing producers on this material out of your market. In a alternative scenario, if low-grade ore is necessary to meet overall demand, both benchmark iron ore prices and discounts could increase significantly, to ensure that low-grade producers would remain in industry because the marginal suppliers.
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