Both once the CBOE future expired now, if the CME bitcoin future is coming settlement, there was clearly an amazing decrease in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and I would reckon that they are covered with one liquidity provider\/market maker. The forex market maker is usually short the future and possibly long lots of. At expiry, they’ll profit in the event the price is low and also have a border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an extremely bad settlement processes which can be all to easy to manipulate. For CBOE it’s the auction price for Gemini – a tender using a really small volume generally.
CME’s model is better, but nonetheless not very good, VWAP around the four major exchanges is a great idea, however, if that VWAP is calculated on just one single minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the quantity on such a brief period is incredibly limited. Regardless if many large participants could have interests in a of the settlement processes they’d probably have the identical position and gains advantage from the identical side with the market manipulation. The VWAP will need to have been calculated over several hours instead). Concluding is that we likely will see a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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